THE RUN HOME
Written by Steve Smith
BENDIGO (16-7)
The Braves have been the East conference’s pace-setters for much of the season but now find themselves in a closer-than-expected race for the minor premiership with Kilsyth. First-year coach Ben Harvey has an experienced outfit primed for a championship run; it’s now a matter of taking care of business both at home and on the road.
Remaining fixtures:
Friday, July 16: v Hobart
Friday, July 23: v Knox
Saturday, July 24: @ Ballarat
Friday, July 30: @ Mt Gambier
Key player:
Luke Meyer: A superb first season from an unheralded import. While all the attention has been on former NBA player Ivan McFarlin, Meyer has quietly gone about his business, averaging 19.4 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Has multiple offensive weapons at his disposal including a nice mid-range game and could well be the decisive factor in the Braves’ post-season hopes.
Predicted finish: 1st (20-7)
KILSYTH (15-8)
The Snakes have been all over the shop this year. Started slowly, raced to the top of the standings by round four, slipped back behind Bendigo by round seven and then kept pace with the Braves – despite some hiccups – the rest of the way to still have a shot at top spot. Need to win every game (a tough ask given they tackle Geelong at The Arena in the season finale) and hope Bendigo drop at least one game to steal the minor premiership.
Remaining fixtures:
Saturday, July 17: v NW Tasmania
Saturday, July 24: v Dandenong
Sunday, July 25: @ Sandringham
Saturday, July 31: @ Geelong
Key player:
Fernandez Lockett: The ever-friendly Lockett has enjoyed playing on the wing and having more offensive firepower around him than he had at Albury-Wodonga last year. Numbers may have dropped off from last year’s production (shorter games and better team-mates will do that) but is shooting 53.7% from the field, a staggering 11% increase on last season.
Predicted finish: 2nd (18-9)
BRISBANE (13-10)
The Spartans are tough to get a handle on. Some nights they look like they could destroy any and every team in the league. Other nights – a 91-58 loss to Ballarat for example – they look completely out of sync. The loss of Boomers squad member Adam Gibson leaves a giant hole that will not be adequately filled.
Remaining fixtures:
Friday, July 16: @ Mt Gambier
Saturday, July 17: @ Frankston
Saturday, July 24: v Mt Gambier
Saturday, July 31: v Dandenong
Key player:
Ash Cannan: Has been the Spartans’ rock all season. Dependable and tough, Cannan does a lot of the grunt work for Brisbane while his trigger-happy backcourt fires away from deep. Has 11 double-doubles for the season.
Predicted finish: 3rd (17-10)
KNOX (13-11)
The Raiders’ title defence has not been smooth sailing. The off-season departure of Nick Payne and Dan Briglia, along with a serious injury to centre Lester Strong has put a heavy workload on CJ Massingale. John Philip's season-ending ruptured Achilles tendon injury means Cam Rigby and the recovered Strong are going to have to step up in a big way. But beware the wounded Raiders as they are still capable of causing a play-off upset or two.
Remaining fixtures:
Friday, July 23: @ Bendigo
Sunday, July 25: v Ballarat
Saturday, July 31: @ Albury-Wodonga
Key player:
CJ Massingale: The Raiders have never needed Massingale’s production more than they have this year and the fifth-year import has delivered in spades. Despite the shorter games is on track to match his career scoring average, a remarkable achievement.
Predicted finish: 4th (15-12)
BALLARAT (11-11)
It’s been a frustrating season for Miners players and fans alike. The former league powerhouse has enjoyed a smackdown of Brisbane and a thrilling one-point win over Geelong at The Arena. The flip side of those impressive wins has been shocking defeats to Albury-Wodonga and Mount Gambier. Barring a miracle, the Miners will miss the play-offs for the fourth straight year and sixth in seven seasons.
Remaining fixtures:
Saturday, July 17: v Hobart
Saturday, July 24: v Bendigo
Sunday, July 25: @ Knox
Friday, July 30: @ Hobart
Saturday, July 31: @ NW Tasmania
Key player:
Drake Reed: A team-mate of Kilsyth’s Fernandez Lockett at Austin Peay State University, Reed took a while to adjust to life in the SEABL but has looked more and more comfortable as the season goes on. Shoots the ball at a decent clip despite one of the strangest shooting actions seen for a while.
Predicted finish: 5th (12-15)
DANDENONG (10-13)
May well be the most disappointing team in the SEABL this year. The Rangers went on a solid recruiting drive that netted Lucas Walker and Luke Fitzgerald, while guards Dwayne Campbell and Mick Watson returned from Sandringham and Albury-Wodonga respectively. But a tough early schedule and some nail-biting defeats conspired to end their lofty ambitions. The surprise resignation of coach Warren Dawson when the Rangers were making a late season push summed up the sort of season Dandenong has endured.
Remaining fixtures:
Saturday, July 17: v Albury-Wodonga
Thursday, July 22: v Geelong
Saturday, July 24: @ Kilsyth
Saturday, July 31: @ Brisbane
Key player:
None: And herein lies the problem. The Rangers just never had a consistent go-to player. Pre-season all the hype was around Walker, who has been up and down like a yo-yo. Despite signing late, Fitzgerald has been a consistent contributor offensively. Defensively? Not so much. Brent Hobba took a back seat in terms of minutes and production from previous years. Vince Inglima was arguably the key player in the Rangers midseason five-game streak but conversely, also hasn't been a key player for stretches during the year.
Predicted finish: 6th (12-15)
AIS (4-11)
Another shortened season for Australia’s finest young basketballers but the Institute did manage to claim some impressive scalps, including Geelong and Knox at home, as well as a come-from-behind win at Dandenong.
Remaining fixtures:
None
Key player:
Mitchell Creek: Despite having more highly-credentialled team-mates such as Hugh Greenwood, Anthony Drmic and Jason Cadee, it has been the play of Creek that has attracted plenty of attention. Ultra-efficient from the field but free throw shooting needs some urgent attention.
Predicted finish: 7th (20-7)
CANBERRA (3-20)
The Gunners have struggled all season, with all three of their wins coming over South conference cellar dwellers Albury-Wodonga and Frankston. Yet to beat a team with a winning record and with three of their four remaining games against play-off teams, look unlikely to do so. Desperately need some depth as bench is wafer thin. Penultimate game against the Pioneers looks their best chance to get a conference win this year.
Remaining fixtures:
Saturday, July 17: @ Geelong
Sunday, July 18: @ Sandringham
Friday, July 23: v Mt Gambier
Saturday, July 31: v Nunawading
Key player:
Zlatko Todorovski: The veteran guard has endured an up-and-down season but remains the heart and soul of the Gunners. Poured in a season-high 32 points against the Bandits in round 5 to pull out a gritty overtime road win.
Predicted finish: 8th (4-23)
